Draft boards with receipts.
Every board on this site is built from signals that survived a backtest — and every ranking comes with a plain-English why. No vibes, no hot takes, no “trust me.” Updated from live NFL camp depth charts for the 2026 season.
Year-Two Breakout Board
Second-year players most likely to jump. Score = rookie-season usage percentile (70%) + draft pedigree (30%), multiplied by camp depth-chart tier.
- Ashton Jeanty (RB · LV)125.0
- Omarion Hampton (RB · LAC)121.0
- Emeka Egbuka (WR · TB)119.8
- Tetairoa McMillan (WR · CAR)119.2
- Quinshon Judkins (RB · CLE)118.8
Rookie Flier Board
This year's draft class ranked by draft capital × camp depth-chart tier — the coach's plan is the only on-field evidence that exists in August.
- Jeremiyah Love (RB · ARI)125.0
- Carnell Tate (WR · TEN)125.0
- Jordyn Tyson (WR · NO)125.0
- Kenyon Sadiq (TE · NYJ)125.0
- Makai Lemon (WR · PHI)125.0
Succession Map
Backups one snap away from inherited volume. Inheritance = starter fragility (games missed, injury-report weeks, age cliff) + job shakiness (expiring or cheap contract).
- J.J. McCarthy (QB · MIN)86.0
- Carson Wentz (QB · MIN)86.0
- Luke Musgrave (TE · GB)71.2
- Xavier Worthy (WR · KC)71.2
- Josh Whyle (TE · GB)71.2
New head coaches — expect a style shift
- BAL — new HC Jesse Minter (first-time HC — scheme unproven)
- CLE — new HC Todd Monken (first-time HC — scheme unproven)
- LV — new HC Klint Kubliak (first-time HC — scheme unproven)
- MIA — new HC Jeff Hafley (first-time HC — scheme unproven)
- NYG — new HC John Harbaugh (from BAL 2025): leans run-heavier (-5%); RB room likely consolidates (+25%)
- PIT — new HC Mike McCarthy (from DAL 2024): RB room likely consolidates (+12%)
- TEN — new HC Robert Saleh (from NYJ 2024): RB room likely spreads out (-4%)